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OfficialShipping, energy & marketsWashington, D.C., United States

World Bank cuts 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% on Middle East war

Mountain Time
Local time
11:37 AM in New York
Where
Washington, D.C., United States

The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5% from 2.9% growth in 2025, saying the Middle East conflict had triggered sharp energy price increases, renewed inflation and expectations of tighter monetary policy. It warned that developing economies face their weakest per-capita income growth since the pandemic.

Why it matters

The forecast puts a number on how far the Hormuz disruption has spread beyond the region, with poorer energy importers hit hardest.

Sources (4)

Confidence: Stated by a named government, military, or institution. Not independently confirmed. About confidence labels

Correction

  • Corrected the headline (it read "World Bank cuts growth outlook on Iran-war shock"); revised the summary; revised the context note; corrected the location from Washington, D.C. / global economy to Washington, D.C., United States; changed the confidence label from reported to official; reclassified it from finance to energy-markets; updated the sourcing note; added a source: The Guardian live blog. Why and evidence